France’s Response to Climate Change: A National Adaptation Plan to Prepare for a +4°C Warming

In the face of the climate emergency, the French government unveils its third National Climate Change Adaptation Plan (Pnacc), aiming to prepare the country for temperature increases of up to +4°C by 2100.

According to Météo-France projections, average temperatures in France could rise by +2°C as early as 2030, +2.7°C by 2050, and +4°C by the end of the century. In response to these forecasts, the government, led by Agnès Pannier-Runacher, Minister for Ecological Transition, developed this plan after two years of preparatory work and a public consultation.

A Common Framework for Collective Adaptation

The Pnacc is based on a Reference Trajectory for Climate Change Adaptation (TRACC), providing a framework for all actors — local authorities, businesses, and citizens — to structure their adaptation strategies in the medium and long term. This trajectory will be gradually integrated into public planning documents to guide future decisions.

Five Strategic Axes and 51 Concrete Measures

The plan is structured around five key pillars:

• Protecting vulnerable populations: Adapting housing to withstand extreme heat, strengthening worker safety measures, and enabling labor inspectors to halt dangerous situations immediately.
• Strengthening the resilience of territories and infrastructure: Creating a national risk exposure map that includes floods, wildfires, and coastal submersion.
• Adapting human activities: Supporting agriculture, revising renovation rules to ensure housing remains livable in higher temperatures, and encouraging insurers to maintain affordable coverage in high-risk areas.
• Preserving natural and cultural heritage: Protecting iconic sites like the Eiffel Tower and Mont-Saint-Michel from rising sea levels and extreme weather events.
• Mobilizing the nation’s resources: Raising public awareness, training local leaders and economic actors on climate challenges, and fostering a culture of adaptation.

Financial Resources Deemed Insufficient

The plan includes an increase in the Barnier Fund to €300 million to help individuals and local authorities finance vulnerability-reduction projects. However, experts argue this amount falls short of what’s needed: the Institute for Climate Economics estimates that €4.4 billion annually would be required just for housing renovations.

A Necessary Step, but Still Room for Improvement

Despite ambitious measures, the plan raises questions about its concrete implementation and the lack of binding legislative measures. Organizations like France Nature Environnement warn that while the plan points in the right direction, it lacks clear leadership and adequate resources.

“Adapting is not giving up,” insists Agnès Pannier-Runacher, emphasizing that the plan is not a substitute for reducing greenhouse gas emissions but a way to actively prepare for the increasing impacts of climate change.

If refined over time and backed by stronger commitments, this plan could lay the groundwork for a more resilient France, ready to protect its people and ecosystems from the unfolding realities of global warming.