On the eve of the decisive vote this Tuesday, November 4, over 77 million Americans have already cast their ballots in early voting to choose their 47th president. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are concentrating their final efforts in the “swing states”, those key states capable of turning the tide of the election. Polls predict an extremely close contest, making the outcome more uncertain than ever

Candidate teams mobilize for last day of campaigning

While Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are wrapping up an intense day to galvanize their voters, their running mates are just as active in this final phase.

Tim Walz, who would become vice-president if Kamala Harris is elected, begins his day in Minnesota before heading to Wisconsin, a key state for the election, to finish with a rally in Michigan.

For his part, Donald Trump’s running mate JD Vance is also making an express tour of the swing states on Monday. He plans to visit Wisconsin, Michigan and Georgia, before concluding with a rally in Newtown, Pennsylvania.

On the economic front, the dollar falls sharply in the run-up to the election

The markets recorded a sharp fall in the dollar and US borrowing rates, while the major stock markets stagnated.

“For the markets, the worst-case scenario would be an election result that is too close or contested”, explains Ipek Ozkardeskaya, analyst at Swissquote Bank.

In the short term, a Kamala Harris victory could favor US bonds and international markets, while a Donald Trump re-election could agitate the euro and European markets, not least because of the risks of new tariffs, the analyst points out.

The decline in Donald Trump’s chances in the polls over the weekend triggered a sell-off in the dollar.

Waiting and counting: when will we know the final result?

As cities like Washington prepare by barricading their streets, the question of official election results arises. Counting begins as soon as polling stations close, which often means that a first verdict can be obtained on election night. However, the experience of 2020 is a reminder that the wait can be long; it took more than three days for the major American media to declare Joe Biden’s victory.

The main cause of these delays is the increase in absentee voting, a more complex process. This type of voting requires additional steps: firstly, checks to ensure that no voter has voted twice, both by post and in person. Next, the ballots, often folded, must be opened, smoothed and inserted into counting machines.

According to the New York Times, however, the process should be faster than in 2020. Fewer absentee ballots are expected this year, and counting teams have gained in efficiency from recent experience.

In the U.S., the media are usually the first to announce the winner of the election, based on the projections and counts obtained in each state.