Suspension of Budget Negotiations Following François Bayrou’s Comments on “Migratory Submersion”

The Socialist Party (PS) has decided to suspend negotiations with the government on the state budget after controversial statements by François Bayrou regarding “migratory submersion.” This decision follows comments made by the Prime Minister, which sparked a strong reaction from the left. The socialists were expected to meet at the Ministry of Finance on Tuesday evening to finalize an agreement on the 2025 budget, but the meeting was canceled.

Comments That Escalate Tensions Within the Left

During an intervention at the National Assembly, François Bayrou insisted on the existence of “migratory submersion” in Mayotte and several other French departments, which deeply shocked the PS. These statements, echoing rhetoric often associated with the far-right, have intensified tensions as the socialists were seeking to reach a compromise on the budget. Socialist MP Laurent Baumel described this suspension as a “temporary interruption,” noting that it was too early to say whether it would lead to a more radical shift in position.

The Future of the Negotiations in Doubt

While the socialists had previously agreed not to censure François Bayrou after several days of discussions, especially concerning the preservation of certain teaching positions, the Prime Minister’s comments crossed a red line. In light of this new situation, the PS may reconsider its position on censure. Laurent Baumel suggested that without significant concessions from the government, a move toward censure could be considered.

Toward a Possible Blockade or Motion of Censure?

This suspension of talks puts additional pressure on François Bayrou and the government. The scenario of a motion of censure, which could derail the adoption of the budget, remains possible. However, such an outcome would be a serious setback for the Prime Minister, who might lack the necessary votes in the Assembly if the socialists and the National Rally unite against him. The current tensions make the outcome of these negotiations particularly uncertain, and reaching a budgetary compromise appears increasingly difficult.

The socialists insist on the need to maintain stability and ensure that France has a budget for 2025. However, between the lack of concessions and comments deemed unacceptable, the PS finds itself at a crossroads where negotiations could either stall or lead to a deeper political crisis.