The Vice President scores comparable to, or even slightly better than, Joe Biden in the most recent polls, conducted before the US President’s withdrawal

While Donald Trump is slightly ahead of Kamala Harris in the latest opinion polls, the announcement of Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race for the White House and the assassination attempt on Donald Trump on July 13 could significantly alter these results.

A tight race

The upcoming duel between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump following Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race for the White House this Sunday, July 21, is particularly close, judging by recent polls published in the American media.

According to an average of 37 polls testing Kamala Harris against Donald Trump, published since July 1, the Republican has 46% of voting intentions to the Democrat’s 42%, giving Trump a solid four-point lead. These polls were compiled by ABC.

However, the method of these polls varies from institute to institute, particularly with regard to the inclusion of a possible third “independent” candidate, such as Robert Francis Kennedy Jr. According to our CNN colleagues, the average of the last six polls, which exclude any other option, gives a score of 47% to Kamala Harris against 48% to Donald Trump. This means that Donald Trump was ahead of Kamala Harris in the polls before Joe Biden withdrew.

Advance in Pivot States

Kamala Harris could well surpass Joe Biden in several crucial “swing states”, those key states that swing between the parties in elections. According to a New York Times/Siena College poll, Harris has better voting intentions in Pennsylvania, with 47% of potential voters in her favor, compared with 45% for Biden. This brings the Democrats closer to Donald Trump’s 48% approval rating in the state.

In Virginia, Harris stood out even more. While Biden obtained 48% to Trump’s 45%, Harris improved his results with 49% of voting intentions, leaving Trump at 44%. These figures show a favorable dynamic for Harris in regions crucial to the election.