A few hours after Prime Minister François Bayrou’s general policy speech, Jean-Luc Mélenchon issued a stern warning with potentially significant repercussions

The leader of La France Insoumise (LFI) threatened to exclude from the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) any MPs who fail to support the no-confidence motion filed by his party. This statement risks destabilizing the already fragile coalition.

A Coalition Under Pressure

The NFP, an alliance uniting the Insoumis, Socialists, Greens, and Communists, appears to be on shaky ground. Jean-Luc Mélenchon raised the stakes during an interview :
“Anyone who does not vote for the no-confidence motion is effectively leaving the NFP agreement. In such cases, we will consider options for their constituency. By refusing to support the motion, the Socialist Party is effectively dismantling the NFP.”

This declaration comes amid ongoing negotiations between the government and the Socialist Party (PS) regarding a potential no-censure agreement. In return, the PS expects specific concessions. However, it remains unclear whether the party, led by Olivier Faure, believes its conditions have been met.

A Powder Keg Ready to Ignite

Since the unexpected dissolution of the National Assembly, tensions within the NFP have steadily risen. The division of constituencies between left-wing parties had already sparked friction—particularly between the Insoumis and Socialists—during the initial negotiations. While a compromise was eventually reached, based on the foundations of the Nupes alliance, those underlying tensions now seem to be resurfacing.

By adopting such a hardline stance, Jean-Luc Mélenchon risks pushing the coalition toward the brink of collapse. His ultimatum highlights the fragility of an alliance where, in theory, every party is supposed to have an equal say.

The NFP’s Future at Stake

For now, the Socialists’ stance remains uncertain. Olivier Faure has yet to clarify his party’s position on the no-confidence motion. This hesitation could determine the fate of the NFP—a bold but increasingly fractured project plagued by recurring internal disagreements.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister François Bayrou is likely watching these developments with interest. A divided opposition would undoubtedly benefit his government, as it seeks to strengthen its parliamentary foothold.