U.S.–Iran: High-Stakes Nuclear Talks Underway in the Gulf

On Saturday, April 12, the Omani capital Muscat is hosting a rare and high-stakes diplomatic encounter between two long-standing adversaries: the United States and Iran. For the first time since Washington’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, senior representatives — Steve Witkoff for the U.S. and Abbas Araghchi for Iran — are meeting to attempt to revive stalled nuclear negotiations. The format of the talks remains unclear, highlighting the enduring mistrust between the two sides.

Uncertain Diplomatic Revival
While the White House insists the talks are “direct,” Tehran describes them as “indirect,” mediated by Oman — a reflection of the deep divisions that persist. The meeting, unexpectedly announced by former President Donald Trump amid escalating rhetoric, takes place under the shadow of military threats. Trump has openly warned that failure to reach an agreement could lead to military action, with Israel playing a leading role in any such operation.

The Burden of the 2015 Nuclear Deal
The original 2015 nuclear deal, struck in Vienna between Iran and world powers, aimed to restrict Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for lifting international sanctions. The U.S. exit from the deal in 2018, during Trump’s first term, unraveled the agreement and prompted Iran to ramp up its uranium enrichment — approaching weapons-grade levels — while maintaining that its program is strictly for civilian purposes.

Sanctions, Isolation, and Growing Pressures
Iran’s economy is buckling under the weight of international sanctions. With soaring inflation, energy shortages, and mounting setbacks among its regional allies (including Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Syrian regime), Tehran’s position has weakened. The country’s new president, Massoud Pezeshkian, seen as more diplomatically inclined, appears willing to explore a negotiated path out of economic and geopolitical isolation.

Threats and the Search for Common Ground
Each side enters the talks with firm demands. The U.S. wants ironclad guarantees that Iran will not pursue nuclear weapons. Iran, on the other hand, insists on a “fair and serious” agreement and rejects negotiations conducted under threat. Ahead of the talks, Trump sent a personal letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, urging him to come to the table — while simultaneously warning of military consequences if Iran refuses to engage.

A Possible but Fragile Agreement
Experts suggest that a temporary or interim deal may be within reach, allowing Iran to partially freeze its nuclear activities in exchange for limited sanctions relief. However, a broader resolution would likely require addressing other contentious issues, including Tehran’s support for regional militias.

As one analyst puts it: “Iran wants to save its economy; the U.S. wants to avoid a war. That leaves a narrow but real window for compromise.”