The European Copernicus service predicts that 2024 will be the hottest year on record, marking a symbolic and worrying milestone with global warming exceeding 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial era. Based on ERA5 climate data, Copernicus even considers it likely that this rise will exceed 1.55°C, marking a new threshold in temperature records

Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of Copernicus’ C3S program, said on Thursday that this exceptional year should serve as an electroshock, in the run-up to COP29, to step up efforts to combat climate change. Scheduled to open in Baku, Azerbaijan, on November 11, this global conference will focus on the search for new financing to help developing countries reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate impacts.

An exceptionally warm October, symbolizing an alarming trend

October 2024 was the second hottest month on record, with an average global temperature of 15.25°C, or 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels. This marks the 15th month in the last 16 in which average warming has exceeded the symbolic 1.5°C mark. This threshold, it should be remembered, corresponds to the most ambitious objective of the 2015 Paris Agreement, which aims to contain warming well below 2°C, and preferably to 1.5°C.

However, this agreement is based on long-term averages, and the 1.5°C limit would only be considered officially breached if this rise persisted over several decades.

Towards “catastrophic” global warming?

Despite international commitments, current forecasts indicate that the world is not following the trajectory of the Paris Agreement. According to the UN, current policies could lead to global warming of 3.1°C by the end of the century, a level described as “catastrophic” because of its increased impacts: droughts, heatwaves and intense rainfall episodes. Even taking into account promised improvements, global temperatures would still rise by 2.6°C, posing serious risks for the planet.

A deregulated climate: torrential rains and extreme events

The effects of global warming were again demonstrated recently by torrential rains in Spain, causing the deaths of over 200 people, mainly in the Valencia region. In October, above-average rainfall was also recorded in France, northern Italy and Norway, while scientists agree that extreme precipitation events are becoming increasingly frequent and violent worldwide.

These alarming conditions reinforce the urgent need for greater global action to reverse this trend and preserve global climate stability.