Budget 2025 Passed by the Senate: A Key Step Before Reaching a Compromise in the Joint Committee

Suspended in December following the censure of the former Barnier government, the 2025 finance bill was revived in January by the Bayrou administration. On Thursday, the Senate approved it in the first reading with 217 votes in favor and 105 against, a result marked by unanimous opposition from the Socialist Party. Despite this majority support, the bill must still overcome several hurdles before its final adoption.

Initially proposed by Michel Barnier in October, the budget was rejected in its first reading by the National Assembly and then halted after the censure of the previous government. François Bayrou has since taken over, defending this pivotal proposal aimed at helping France meet its European commitments to restore public finances while maintaining fiscal balance. With a target of €32 billion in spending cuts and €21 billion in additional revenue, the government aims to reduce the public deficit to 5.4% of GDP by the end of the year.

However, tensions remain high, particularly with the left, which strongly opposes cuts in sensitive areas such as ecology, housing, and development aid. “This budget penalizes those who are not responsible for the current imbalances,” said Socialist Senator Thierry Cozic, calling for further concessions to avoid new censures.

The next step is crucial: a joint committee (CMP), composed of seven deputies and seven senators, will meet on January 30 to draft a common version of the bill. This CMP may provide a final opportunity to incorporate adjustments before presenting the final proposal to the National Assembly during the week of February 3. If disagreements persist, the government may resort to Article 49.3, which could trigger another motion of censure.

Towards a Difficult Compromise

The discussions remain complex, as the government must balance European fiscal requirements with the demands of various parliamentary groups. The Senate’s right-wing majority, a key ally of the government, supports what it calls a “responsible” budget but remains wary of concessions granted to the Socialists. “This is not Gabriel Attal’s budget, nor François Bayrou’s budget. It is the Senate’s budget,” emphasized Christine Lavarde, leader of the Les Républicains group in the Senate.

Meanwhile, the left is divided: the Socialist Party is under pressure from its leftist allies, with the France Insoumise party threatening to break from the New Popular Front coalition if the Socialists do not support a motion of censure. The Greens, led by Marine Tondelier, have also voiced strong criticism, denouncing the “sacrifice of ecology” in this budget.

For the government, each stage will test its ability to build solid compromises in a context of a relative majority in the National Assembly. If the CMP reaches an agreement, the draft will still need to clear hurdles in both the Assembly and the Senate. The path ahead is fraught with challenges but remains crucial to ensuring the implementation of the 2025 budget before the end of February.