Greenhouse gas emissions in France: a concerning slowdown in 2024

After a significant reduction in 2023, the decline in Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions in France is slowing in 2024, with a slight increase recorded in the third quarter. According to data published this Friday, December 27, by Citepa, the organization responsible for the national carbon balance, emissions rose by 0.5% year-on-year in the third quarter, following decreases of 5% and 2.2% in the first and second quarters, respectively.

A slowdown in momentum

Over the first nine months of 2024, GHG emissions show a 2.4% decline compared to the previous year, a figure far below the 6% decrease observed over the same period in 2023. To recall, 2023 ended with a 5.8% reduction in emissions compared to 2022, marking a particularly positive year in terms of decarbonization.

However, the last year that recorded an increase in emissions remains 2021 (+6.4%), directly linked to the post-Covid economic recovery. While 2024 has not reached this level, it could still end up being a less favorable year for GHG reductions.

The building and transport sectors to blame

The slowdown observed in 2024 is mainly due to a rebound in emissions from the building and transport sectors.

• Building: This sector is particularly under scrutiny, with a marked 11.8% increase in the third quarter. This rise is attributed to higher demand for heating in residential and tertiary buildings in September 2024.
• Transport: Road traffic emissions, up by 1.1% over the quarter, also contribute to this mixed performance.

On the other hand, there are positive signs:

• Domestic air transport: Emissions from this sector decreased by 4.1% in the third quarter, continuing the downward trend observed in 2023 (-3.5%).
• Energy and industry: Decarbonization of electricity production is ongoing, thanks to reduced reliance on fossil fuels. The manufacturing industry is also reducing its emissions, albeit at a slower pace (-1.3% in the third quarter compared to -2.8% in the previous quarter).

Ambitious targets, significant challenges

Citepa recalls that to comply with the National Low-Carbon Strategy (SNBC), an average annual reduction of 4.7% in emissions is required between 2022 and 2030 to reach the provisional target of 270 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2030 (excluding carbon sinks).

The organization emphasizes the importance of maintaining a multifactorial dynamic involving all sectors, as was the case in 2023. However, the interim assessment of SNBC 2, scheduled for 2025, will determine whether France is on track to meet its climate ambitions.

Despite the progress made in recent years, France continues to face numerous challenges in adhering to its European commitments to reduce emissions by 55% by 2030 (compared to 1990 levels) and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.