The Succession of Michel Barnier at Matignon: Macron Seeks the Ideal Candidate

As the fall of Michel Barnier’s government appears inevitable due to a motion of censure being debated this Wednesday, December 4, in the National Assembly, Emmanuel Macron is already preparing to appoint the next Prime Minister. Several names have emerged in discussions, hinting at a strategic decision by the President of the Republic.

A Political Puzzle for the Élysée

In response to the parliamentary uncertainty, Emmanuel Macron has spent recent days holding consultations, mixing face-to-face meetings with phone calls to his close advisors. The goal is clear: to identify a successor to Michel Barnier capable of securing a majority in a deeply divided National Assembly.

Sébastien Lecornu: The Élysée’s Favorite

Among the names being considered, Sébastien Lecornu, the Minister of Armed Forces, stands out. A loyal ally of Emmanuel Macron since 2017, Lecornu has held key government roles, from the Ministry of Ecological Transition to the Ministry of Overseas Territories, before assuming his current post at Defense. His longevity and loyalty make him a strong contender.

Furthermore, his profile could appeal to segments of the opposition. As a former member of The Republicans, Lecornu maintains good relations with the moderate right and is reportedly not seen as a polarizing figure by the National Rally, a crucial player in the parliamentary balance.

François Bayrou: The Consensus Candidate

Another frequently mentioned figure is François Bayrou, president of the MoDem and current High Commissioner for Planning. A historic supporter of Macron in 2017, Bayrou enjoys respect across much of the Assembly, including among members of the National Rally.
Bayrou’s advocacy for reforms like the introduction of proportional representation in legislative elections positions him as a unifier. However, his more distant relationship with the president in recent years could weigh against him.

Options Ruled Out

Other figures have been floated but appear less likely. Bernard Cazeneuve, a former Prime Minister and figure of the moderate left, seems too risky a choice in a context where Macron seeks stability leaning more on the right and center.
Similarly, Bruno Retailleau, the current Minister of the Interior, is considered too divisive due to his conservative stances.

A Tight Timeline

With a budget to be passed before the end of the year, time is of the essence for the Élysée. Emmanuel Macron, expected back this Wednesday from Saudi Arabia, must make a swift decision to avoid prolonged institutional deadlock.

As the Assembly prepares to examine the motions of censure, the choice of the next Prime Minister will be crucial to ensure government stability and to continue reforms in an increasingly tense political climate.