Marine Le Pen Maintains the Pressure: Barnier’s Government Faces Imminent No-Confidence Motion

After a tense meeting with Michel Barnier, Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally (RN) deputies, remains determined to wield the threat of a no-confidence motion. She specifically highlights taxes on electricity and the incomplete adjustment of pensions to inflation as non-negotiable red lines. Without significant changes to the state budget, she asserts her intent to topple the government by mid-December.

Barnier in Turmoil

Could Michel Barnier, the Prime Minister, lose his position after this confrontation? “Nothing is less certain,” Marine Le Pen declared after their hour-long meeting at Matignon. According to her, although polite, Michel Barnier appeared “inflexible” in his stance, leaving little hope for a favorable resolution.

In the absence of an absolute majority in the National Assembly, Michel Barnier is reportedly considering invoking Article 49.3 of the Constitution, which allows the budget to pass without a vote. However, this move also enables opposition parties to file a no-confidence motion, which could prove fatal if it garners at least 289 votes.

An Unlikely Coalition to Unseat Barnier?

The RN could succeed in bringing down the government by joining forces with the left, an improbable but formidable alliance. Together, these political groups hold 320 votes, far exceeding the threshold needed to overthrow the government. If this coalition materializes, Michel Barnier’s political future will be in jeopardy.

For now, the Prime Minister is attempting to defuse the situation, reminding the public that the French people favor “stability and serenity” over political crises. Nonetheless, tensions remain high.

RN’s Red Lines: A Clear Ultimatum

Marine Le Pen emphasizes her key demands:

• No increase in electricity taxes.
• Full adjustment of pensions to inflation.

“If nothing changes, it will be a no-confidence motion,” declared the Pas-de-Calais deputy, underscoring her camp’s uncompromising position.

Toward a “Greek Scenario”?

In response to this threat, the government is relying on two strategies: persuading the Socialists not to support the no-confidence motion and evoking the specter of a “Greek scenario.” This comparison, mentioned by government spokesperson Maud Bregeon, refers to the economic and political turmoil that gripped Greece during its 2008 debt crisis.

Whether these arguments will suffice to calm tensions remains to be seen. The coming days, filled with further negotiations at Matignon, will be crucial in determining the fate of Michel Barnier and his government.