Examination of Budget 2025: tensions at the National Assembly and decisive stakes for Michel Barnier’s government

On Monday evening, the Members of the French National Assembly meet to examine a text of great importance. The debates promise to be stormy, jeopardising the stability of the Barnier government, which has only been in office for a month. From 9.30pm onwards, the National Assembly will consider the revenue side of the Finance Bill (PLF) for 2025, with tensions rising in the corridors of the Palais-Bourbon. After being debated, amended and rejected by the Finance Committee, the draft budget is back in its original form, but remains fraught with explosive issues.

For the government of the right and centre, it is time for action, with an ambitious savings plan of €60 billion. However, the left intends to use this opportunity to table a motion of censure, and the far right could well tip the balance on the fate of Michel Barnier and his team. The discussions will be spread over several days, or even weeks, depending on the Prime Minister’s instructions, and the MPs will clash over measures that will directly affect the wallets of the French people. Franceinfo highlights the crucial issues at stake in this highly sensitive text.

Can LFI block the examination of the text?

On paper, the draft budget may not even be discussed in public session. France insoumise has tabled a motion for prior rejection, confirmed by Eric Coquerel and Clémence Guetté. If this motion is adopted, it would prevent the debate, directly transferring the examination of the first part of the PLF 2025 to the Senate.

However, it is unlikely that this motion will receive the necessary votes. Part of the Nouveau Front populaire (NFP), which does not belong to LFI, wants to debate the bill. In addition, the Rassemblement National (RN), through its deputy chairman Jean-Philippe Tanguy, has announced that it will not vote in favour of this motion, describing it as a ‘gift’ to Michel Barnier. The debates should therefore continue as planned, barring any unexpected reversals.

What tax measures will be adopted?

The examination of the budget will begin with some critical points, notably the exceptional tax on high incomes. In committee, an agreement was reached between the Left and the MoDem to perpetuate a minimum tax rate of 20% on the richest households, which aroused the ire of part of the presidential bloc. Other measures, such as raising the flat tax on financial income, may also be up for discussion.

In addition, the MPs succeeded in cancelling the increase in electricity tax, initially planned to put an end to the tariff shield introduced in 2022. This issue will return to the table during the debates in the public session, with a target of three billion euros in revenue for the government. The tightening of the car tax on internal combustion vehicles, also removed in committee, is likely to generate additional tensions.

Support for the ‘common base’: a double-edged sword

Michel Barnier’s government has to navigate carefully between the different parliamentary factions. MPs from the ‘common base’ (composed of the presidential camp and the right) will not necessarily align themselves on the same positions. An ‘exceptional’ surtax on 440 large companies survived the committee debates, but some Ensemble pour la République MPs want to scrap it.

To ease tensions, the Minister for Relations with Parliament, Nathalie Delattre, called a meeting of the ‘common base’ MPs before the start of the debates.

Amendments: a decisive parliamentary strategy

The length of the discussions will also depend on the number of amendments tabled by the eleven groups in the National Assembly. Contrary to its previous obstructionist strategies, the Left has chosen not to add to the debate. On the other hand, the Republican Right group (formerly Les Républicains) has submitted a larger number of amendments than usual. In all, more than 3,400 proposed amendments have been requested, although some are likely to be withdrawn or deemed inadmissible.

The use of 49.3: a sword of Damocles?

There are two key questions: will Michel Barnier use Article 49.3, which allows a text to be adopted without a vote? If so, when will this decision be taken? In a House where the ‘common base’ does not exceed 200 deputies, the possibility of recourse seems likely. ‘Delaying the adoption of the budget could paralyse public action and compromise the management of the State’s finances’, warned the Prime Minister.

However, the government remains reluctant to use this option. Questioned on BFMTV, Laurent Saint-Martin said he wanted the debate to take place while maintaining the objective of reducing the deficit to 5% of GDP by 2025.

What role will the RN play?

In this context, the Left will not do the government any favours, particularly if the 49.3 is activated. France insoumise has promised to table a motion of censure whenever this measure is used. The rest of the NFP would no doubt support these actions. The survival of the government will largely depend on the attitude of the Rassemblement National, which has no plans to vote for censure at the moment.

However, RN president Jordan Bardella has warned that ‘if red lines are crossed’, the government could face censure. This budget is seen as incoherent and harmful to savers, workers and businesses. If the RN were to vote a motion of censure, Michel Barnier’s government could fall and the draft budget would be rejected.