An uncertain political situation

The presidential camp lost its relative majority to the New Popular Front in Sunday’s second round of legislative elections. However, the left-wing coalition is still a long way from achieving the 289 seats required for an absolute majority. This political situation is creating a great deal of uncertainty.

“It’s not being done on a corner of the table”, commented a person close to Emmanuel Macron following the second round of the legislative elections. Discussions to form a government coalition are shaping up to be difficult, with the results on Sunday 7 July having fragmented the National Assembly into three blocs. Contrary to the polls, it was the New Popular Front (NFP), an alliance of left-wing parties, that came out on top, overtaking the National Rally. The leaders of the former Nupes immediately asserted their legitimacy to govern, although they did not obtain an absolute majority. The far-right party finished third, while the presidential camp held up better than expected, taking second place.

Head of government on standby

“True to Republican tradition”, Gabriel Attal announced that he would hand in his resignation to the President of the Republic on Monday morning, although he planned to remain head of government while a new cabinet was put together. “Our country is experiencing an unprecedented political situation and is preparing to welcome the world in a few weeks’ time. So I will of course continue to carry out my duties for as long as duty requires”, he said, referring to the Olympic Games. In the corridors of power, uncertainty reigned. “We’re waiting to see what happens next”, said a ministerial source.

Turbulence, not a crisis of regime

At the Elysée Palace, too, people are taking a wait-and-see attitude. The Head of State, who did not speak on Sunday evening, will wait for the “structuring” of the new National Assembly before “taking the necessary decisions”, said the Presidency. In his entourage, people are openly wondering which coherent coalition could achieve the 289 deputies needed to govern. According to Ipsos-Talan estimates for France Télévisions, Radio France, France 24, RFI and LCP, the New Popular Front would win between 177 and 192 seats, the presidential camp between 152 and 158 seats, and the RN between 138 and 145 seats. “We don’t know who will govern,” said Simon Persico, a teacher and researcher in political science at Grenoble. “We know the political forces, but now we have to agree on a programme. All that takes time.”

“We are experiencing turbulence, not a regime crisis”, added constitutionalist Thibaud Mulier. “Institutionally, it can work. There will be major reconfigurations in practice, but the text of the Fifth Republic is sufficiently malleable.” From Matignon, Gabriel Attal called for a “new era”. “We need to invent something new, something great, something useful. To do that, we will have to be prepared to call everything into question”, said the Prime Minister.

End of the Macron hegemony

The time of Macron hegemony is over, as is the period of two turbulent years in the Palais-Bourbon when the presidential camp only had a relative majority. “We must not repeat the mistakes of 2022. So we must draw the consequences of the vote with a coalition of projects”, assured a person close to Emmanuel Macron.

The leaders of the parties in the President’s camp have already begun to define the contours of the negotiations, in terms of both content and form. “We will formalise the preconditions for any discussion with a view to a majority for the project”, declared Renaissance leader Stéphane Séjourné, citing the defence of secularism, support for Ukraine, the fight against climate change and security as government priorities. “I am ready to work with all the republican parties”, he added, while excluding “Jean-Luc Mélenchon and a number of his allies”. For his part, Edouard Philippe called for the creation of an agreement to stabilise the political situation, ruling out any alliance with the RN or LFI. “But this agreement will not be lasting. It will at best allow the country to be managed”, he warned.

The challenges of the New Popular Front

Within the New Popular Front, the tenors of the four main allied parties (LFI, PS, EELV and PCF) are united in their desire to govern despite the absence of an absolute majority. However, many questions remain unanswered and the parties diverge on a possible coalition. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the Insoumis and the largest force in terms of seats within the NFP, stated that “the President has a duty to call on the New Popular Front to govern” and ruled out any discussion with the presidential camp.

The Socialists, for their part, have a more nuanced position. Olivier Faure, first secretary of the PS, declared that the programme of the left-wing alliance would be its “only compass” and called on the presidential camp to “never mix [its] votes with those of the far right to prevent the New Popular Front from governing”.François Hollande, who was re-elected as MP for Corrèze, said that the NFP should “try, if it can, to bring together other political families”, although this would be “very difficult”.A Socialist executive added that the Prime Minister needed to have the approval of the President, the Macronists, the Socialists and part of LFI.

The ecologists also seem open to the idea of finding support.”As we are the group that came out on top, it’s up to us to build majorities around our project”, said Yannick Jadot on BFMTV. However, the head of the Greens, Marine Tondelier, temporised by saying that “this is not yet the time to propose a Prime Minister”.

Intensive negotiations ahead. The discussions have only just begun on the left. LFI MP Clémentine Autain has proposed that the four left-wing parties meet on Monday to discuss a name for a prime minister to propose to Emmanuel Macron.
However, convincing less left-wing MPs to support the NFP’s plan looks set to be difficult.Léon Deffontaines, of the PCF, has listed priorities such as pension reform and higher wages and pensions. Manuel Bompard, re-elected deputy for Bouches-du-Rhône, insisted on “raising the minimum wage”, “freezing the prices of basic necessities” and “repealing pension reform”.

The President could also rely on another group to try to form an absolute majority.The Republicans, having held out better than expected, could lend the support of their deputies to a government leaning to the right, possibly with the support of RN deputies on certain texts.Whatever direction is chosen, the negotiations will be lengthy.
One ministerial adviser was convinced even before the results of the second round that coalition-building would be an important legacy of Macronism: “If in ten years’ time we’ve learned how to build coalitions, it will have served its purpose.”

Whatever direction is chosen, the negotiations will be lengthy. One ministerial adviser was convinced even before the results of the second round that coalition-building would be an important legacy of Macronism: “If in ten years’ time we’ve learned how to build coalitions, it will have served its purpose.”