According to the latest estimates, the Rassemblement National (RN) dominated the first round of the 2024 legislative elections with 34% of the vote. It is followed by the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) with 28.1%, while the presidential camp comes third with just 20.3%

Rassemblement National in the lead in the first round of the 2024 legislative elections

Confirmation of the RN wave. The success of the Rassemblement National (RN) in the European elections was confirmed in the first round of the legislative elections. Three weeks after Emmanuel Macron’s surprise dissolution of the National Assembly, the RN and its allies came out well ahead on Sunday 30 June, with 34% of the vote, according to the latest estimates.

Strategic alliance. For this election, Jordan Bardella’s party, victorious in the elections on 9 June, formed an alliance with a faction of the Republicans led by Eric Ciotti. Together, they achieved an impressive score: the RN alone obtained 30%, far surpassing its 18.68% in the first round of the 2022 legislative elections. Eric Ciotti and his supporters, allied with the RN in around sixty constituencies, took 4% of the vote.

Nouveau Front Populaire. The Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), formed in a hurry after the European elections, won 28.1% of the vote, surpassing the Nupes’ score in 2022 (25.78%). Other left-wing candidates, excluding the NFP, won 1.8% of the vote.

Significant decline in the presidential camp

Defeat for Emmanuel Macron. The presidential camp, with 20.3%, suffered a sharp drop compared to the previous legislative elections, when it obtained 25.75% in the first round. That relative majority of 2022 now seems a long way off. The second round promises to be difficult for the Ensemble pour la République coalition (Renaissance-MoDem-Horizons).

The Republicans in trouble. Refusing an alliance with the RN, the Républicains won just 10.2% of the vote, down from 13.62% in 2022. The party will have to fight to hold on to its strongholds.

Failure for Reconquête. Éric Zemmour’s party, Reconquête, suffered a heavy defeat with just 0.6% of the vote, well down on its 4.24% in 2022.

Other results. Candidates from the far left obtained 1.2% of the vote, while the sovereignist right garnered 0.3%.

The challenge of the Republican front

Political negotiations. The campaign, launched after the dissolution of 9 June, was marked by numerous negotiations between the political forces. The left quickly agreed on a programme and joint candidacies, with a rebalancing in favour of the Socialist Party. The Republicans experienced internal tensions following Éric Ciotti’s decision to form an alliance with the RN, a decision criticised both politically and legally.

Division in the presidential camp. Emmanuel Macron’s dissolution of the Assembly has created tensions within the presidential coalition. Many candidates have distanced themselves from the president, and the presidential camp has split over the strategy to adopt in the face of a RN-NFP duel in the second round.

Projections and issues

Prospects for the second round. According to the latest projections, the RN and its allies should form the largest bloc in the National Assembly after the second round on 7 July, and could come close to an absolute majority. Jordan Bardella has set this majority as a condition for becoming Prime Minister.

Call for a Republican front. The Nouveau Front Populaire candidates will be calling on the centrist bloc and its voters to form a Republican Front, a strategy whose effectiveness is increasingly being questioned. Numerous withdrawals could occur before the deadline for submitting lists for the second round, which means that seat projections must be read with caution.