Legislative elections 2024: according to the polls, the Rassemblement National leads in voting intentions, ahead of the left and far ahead of the presidential camp. H24 NEWS takes stock one week before the first round.

  • Post category:Politics
  • Reading time:8 mins read

La synthèse des différents sondages donne 35,8 % des intentions de vote pour le Rassemblement national qui se hisserait en tête au premier tour des législatives. Le Nouveau Front populaire et la coalition présidentielle suivent loin derrière

À huit jours du premier tour des législatives, le Rassemblement national (RN) et ses alliés républicains de l’aile d’Éric Ciotti mènent les intentions de vote avec 35,8% (31,5% pour le RN et 5% pour les LR soutenus par le RN). Ils sont suivis par l’alliance de gauche sous la bannière du Nouveau Front populaire avec 28,7%, tandis que le camp présidentiel (Ensemble) atteint 21,5%.

Il est envisagé que Jordan Bardella, président du RN, puisse être nommé à Matignon, mais il a déclaré dès le 18 juin qu’il refuserait ce poste sans une majorité absolue. Cette position est soutenue par 58% des Français.

L’alliance de gauche du Nouveau Front populaire, créditée de 27% des intentions de vote, deviendrait le principal groupe d’opposition avec 150 à 170 sièges. Le camp présidentiel “Ensemble”, à 20%, obtiendrait entre 90 et 110 sièges, soit une perte de 130 à 150 sièges par rapport aux 245 députés Renaissance actuels.

Les Républicains “canal historique”, opposés à l’alliance avec le RN et crédités de 10% des intentions de vote, pourraient conserver entre 35 et 45 sièges (contre 62 actuellement). Les autres forces politiques, y compris les divers et régionalistes, obtiendraient entre 10 et 12 sièges.

The other candidates did not exceed 2%: the left-wing dissidents, breaking away from the New Popular Front, would have 2%. The Reconquête candidates and the others would each garner 1.5%, followed by those on the far left with 1%. Dissidents from the presidential camp and other sovereignists close the gap with 0.5% of voting intentions each.

Turnout expected to rise

Turnout in the first round is estimated at 62%, marking a clear increase on the 47.5% recorded in 2022. Among these voters, 74% say their choice is definitive. RN voters are the most certain of their decision at 88%, followed by the New Popular Front at 81% and the presidential camp at 73%. On the other hand, among Republicans, the situation remains uncertain, with only 52% certain and 48% still hesitant.

With regard to the transfer of votes between the European elections and the poll on 30 June and 7 July, 72% of Raphaël Glucksmann’s voters plan to vote for the New Popular Front, while 20% are leaning towards a candidate from the presidential camp. In addition, 93% of voters on Manon Aubry’s (LFI) list at the European elections chose to support the left-wing alliance for the legislative elections.

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