According to the rating agency, French public debt is expected to reach 112% of GDP in 2027, compared with around 109% in 2023

Standard and Poor’s has delivered its verdict. The rating agency lowered its rating on the evolution of French public debt from ‘AA’ to ‘AA-’ on Friday 31 May. ‘Contrary to our previous forecasts, we estimate that France’s public debt will reach about 112% of GDP by 2027, up from about 109% in 2023,’ S&P said in a statement.

‘Although we believe that the recovery in economic growth and the economic and fiscal reforms recently implemented will enable France to reduce its budget deficit, we now expect it to remain above 3% of GDP in 2027’, added S&P, while judging that ‘the outlook is stable’. At the end of April, the other two agencies (Moody’s and Fitch) had not changed their ratings of France.

On social network X, the boss of the Republicans, Eric Ciotti, reacted coolly to this new memo. ‘This is where the pitiful management of public finances by the Macron/Le Maire duo is leading us!’ he wrote. For her part, Marine Le Pen, leader of the Rassemblement National MPs, criticised ‘catastrophic management of public finances’. LFI MP Eric Coquerel also voiced his concerns, believing that the government would use this decision to justify further budget cuts.

Bruno Le Maire tries to reassure

In an interview with Le Parisien, Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire said on Friday evening that ‘there will be no impact on the day-to-day lives of the French’. Along with Thomas Cazenave, the Minister Delegate for Public Accounts, he sees this rating as a call to continue the policy of public savings. ‘I take note of this decision. It does not change my determination to restore public finances. We have begun to do so, and we will continue to do so”, he said. The government’s objective remains to bring the deficit ‘below 3% of GDP in 2027’.

The Economy Minister attributed this rating mainly to the French government’s support policies during the Covid-19 crisis. ‘We spent to protect. This essential spending obviously increased the debt”, he explained, adding that French debt still finds “easy buyers on the markets”.