2025 Budget: Agreement Between Deputies and Senators, but Uncertainty Remains for the Assembly Vote

On January 31, 2025, after a day and a half of intense discussions, parliamentarians gathered in a joint committee reached a compromise on the 2025 state budget. A common agreement was reached despite significant differences, especially regarding the State Medical Aid (AME), which was a major point of contention between the right, the left, and the presidential majority.

A Compromise on State Medical Aid and Electricity

The debates were particularly heated on several key issues. One of the main points of tension was AME, a system that allows undocumented individuals to receive full coverage for medical expenses. The Senate, with a right-wing majority, had voted to reduce the AME budget by 200 million euros, but this proposal was strongly contested by the Socialists. Ultimately, a compromise was found through a proposal by Renaissance deputy David Amiel, which resulted in freezing the credits without reducing the budget. While this corresponds to an implicit reduction due to inflation, the AME will remain in its current form, which is seen as a victory by the Socialists and a “small victory” for the Republicans.

Other adjustments were made regarding electricity and nuclear production. Article 4 of the bill, which reforms the rules for selling nuclear electricity, raised concerns about the potential increase in electricity bills for French citizens. However, due to the committee’s composition, where the right and the presidential majority hold the majority, these proposals could not be blocked.

Persisting Tensions on Job Cuts and Contributions from Large Companies

Discussions were also tense regarding job cuts, particularly in education. The government had planned to eliminate 4,000 teaching positions, a measure that was widely criticized. The final compromise allowed these cuts to remain, although the left made efforts to defend the integrity of the education system.

Regarding large companies, another compromise was reached. The exceptional contribution, initially planned to span two years, will now be applied over just one year, in response to criticisms, particularly from Bernard Arnault, CEO of LVMH. Additionally, a differentiated contribution will be required from the highest incomes, but the left’s hopes to make this measure permanent were not fulfilled.

The Prospect of Article 49.3 and a Motion of Censure

Despite this compromise, the path ahead remains uncertain. Prime Minister François Bayrou will now face a crucial vote in the National Assembly on Monday. Although an agreement has been reached in the committee, it is unlikely the government will secure the 287 votes needed to pass the budget without difficulty. Indeed, the Socialists, environmentalists, and some members of La France Insoumise have announced their opposition, while the National Rally (RN) may potentially support a motion of censure against the government.

Given this political instability, the use of Article 49.3, which allows a text to be passed without a vote, seems increasingly likely. This move would immediately trigger a motion of censure, though it currently seems unlikely to overthrow the government. However, the situation remains uncertain, and the support of Marine Le Pen’s factions could change the outcome.

Conclusion: A Fragile Political Victory

This compromise on the 2025 budget is, therefore, a partial victory for François Bayrou, who has managed to avoid a total deadlock, but the stakes remain high. The Prime Minister will still need to navigate the various parties and internal tensions carefully to secure final approval. The days ahead are likely to be decisive, with political debates potentially marking a turning point in the government’s management and its relationship with Parliament.